岩﨑 えり奈

Developing industrial linkages as spatial binding forces has become crucial for improving firms’ productivity. This paper examines the impacts of the adoption of forward and financial linkages on the vertical integration and performance of textile and garment firms in Egypt. This study uses a sample of 1020 micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises, employing propensity score matching to mitigate the endogeneity bias caused by the self-selection problem in adopting industrial linkages. Inverse-probability-weighted regression adjustment is applied as a doubly robust estimator to quantify the impact. The results confirm the positive impact of forward linkage on total factor productivity (TFP). We also found that financial linkage positively affects labor productivity, TFP, and vertical integration, while its impact on exports was marginal. Adopting financial linkage can increase the value-added per labor by 11–13 thousand Egyptian pounds and increase vertical integration by 13 percentage points. Industrial linkages have not realized an impact on exports in the current market structure; however, extending financial linkage works as an alternative to mitigating financial constraints. We underscore the significance of the policy that fosters forward and financial linkages to induce vertical integration and productivity growth.

One of the areas that show the most visible effects of human-induced land alterations is also the world’s most essential resource: water. Decision-makers in arid regions face considerable difficulties in providing and maintaining sustainable water resource management. However, developing appropriate and straightforward approaches for quantifying water use in arid/hyper-arid regions is still a formidable challenge. Meanwhile, a better knowledge of the effects of land use land cover (LULC) changes on natural resources and environmental systems is required. The purpose of this study was to quantify the water consumption in a hyper-arid region (New Valley, Egypt) using two different approaches—LULC based on optical remote sensing data and groundwater storage changes based on Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data—and to compare and contrast the quantitative results of the two approaches. The LULC of the study area was constructed from 1986 to 2021 to identify the land cover changes and investigate the primary water consumption patterns. The analysis of groundwater storage changes utilized two GRACE mascon solutions from 2002 to 2021 in New Valley. The results showed an increase in agricultural areas in New Valley’s oases. They also showed an increased in irrigation water usage and a continuous decrease in the groundwater storage of New Valley. The overall water usage in New Valley for domestic and irrigation was calculated as 18.62 km3 (0.93 km3/yr) based on the LULC estimates. Moreover, the groundwater storage changes of New Valley were extracted using GRACE and calculated to be 19.36 ± 7.96 km3 (0.97 ± 0.39 km3/yr). The results indicated that the water use calculated from LULC was consistent with the depletion in groundwater storage calculated by applying GRACE. This study provides an essential reference for regional sustainability and water resource management in arid/hyper-arid regions.

The number of deep groundwater wells in the arid lands of Egypt has increased greatly since the mid-twentieth century. Modern well drilling technology using rotary drilling rigs and pumping tests came to Egypt with the beginning of the New Valley Project in 1958, bringing significantly increased water discharge. Taking Rashda Village in Dakhla Oasis as a case study, this paper documents the expansion of agricultural lands as a result of the development and application of well drilling technologies. The materials used include satellite images from 1968 until 2018, and groundwater well data obtained from field visits and governmental reports. The analysis makes clear that there has been a huge change in land use/cover over the past 50 years (1968–2018) with the largest expansion of agricultural lands occurring between 1988 and 2003 driven by acceleration in well drilling. One of the complex phenomena that appeared is the increase in drainage ponds from 15.6 ha in 1968 to 194.4 ha in 2018 where growth of drainage ponds was correlated with the rapid increase in agricultural lands (1998–2003). In the past two decades, Rashda village has been under continuous pressure from population growth and increasing water demand for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and institutional uses. However, the development has continued without attention to its sustainability.

Dakhla Oasis is the most highly populated oasis in Egypt. Although the groundwater resource is very large, there is essentially no rainfall and the aquifer from which the water is drawn is not recharged. Therefore, for the future development and sustainability of Dakhla Oasis, it is important to understand how land and water are used in the oasis and meteorological conditions there. In this study, meteorological and satellite data were used to examine the recent agricultural situation and water use. The results showed that the meteorological conditions are suitable for plant production, and the maximum vegetation index value was comparable to the Nile delta. The cultivated area increased between 2001 and 2019 by 13.8 km(2) year(-1), with most of the increase occurring after the 2011 revolution (21.2 km(2) year(-1)). People living in Dakhla Oasis derive their income primarily from agricultural activity, which requires abundant water. Thus, the increasing demand for water is likely to put pressure on the groundwater resource and limit its sustainability.

This study investigates the effect of agglomeration on technical efficiency of small and medium-sized garment firms in Egypt. Using a sample of 502 firms, we estimated a translog stochastic frontier production function with inefficiency components. We also applied a switching regression model to address self-selection in choice of agglomeration. Results confirm that agglomeration enhances technical efficiency of sampled firms through development of industrial linkages and accumulation of human capital. Given the increasing importance of cluster-based development policies, we underscore the need to promote agglomeration of garment firms, and thereby foster forward and backward linkages to improve their efficiency and to develop global value chains.

The Nefzaoua region in southern Tunisia is characterized by the presence of various types of oases. However, despite their diversity, the oases are often classified into only two categories according to their cultivation mode: traditional and modern. In light of concerns over the sustainability of oasis society, assessing the rationality of modern and traditional oases in the context of both natural and economic environments is necessary. This paper attempts this assessment, and employs a case study based on a survey of farmers in two oases, Mouthabra (a modern oasis) and Souk Bayez (a traditional oasis), in the spring of 2012. As an empirical analysis, this paper investigates the farm-level technical efficiency of date palm production by oasis farmers in southern Tunisia, estimating the Cobb- Douglas form of stochastic frontier production function. The results shed light on the distinction between traditional and modern oases. Traditional oases have higher productivity in date palm production than modern oases because of the farmers’ efforts to maximize their possible outputs. Although traditional oases are facing water scarcity, there is considerable scope for increasing date production.

Adoption of multilayer farming on agricultural production is traditionally observed among date farms in oases of southern Tunisia. While some farmers prefer monoculture of Deglat Nour production, other innovative farmers consider this multilayer farming as a survival strategy. It is regarded as an important method of farming adapted to oases agriculture under severe water constraints. Despite the growing interest among the policy makers and scholars in multilayer farming, a question remains whether the multilayer farming impacts on production, productivity and income of farms. This is especially so for the date farms in Tunisia where date production make up an important product for the farmers and as export good as well. Using cross-section data collected during 2014 in Nefzaoua, this chapter studies the effect of multilayer farming in terms of farm-level production, productivity, and income compared with monoculture farming, which plants only Deglat Nour, to determine appropriate procedures for policy makers. Specifically, we employ a propensity score matching (PSM) method and compare the production, productivity and income of the farms that adopted multilayer farming and those that did not. Our results suggest that the adoption of multilayer farming has a positive effect on land productivity and average water productivity, although we cannot confirm its impact on date production and agricultural income. Although monoculture date farming is regarded as an efficient farming method, these results provide empirical evidence that support the effectiveness of traditional farming method.

The Nefzaoua region in southern Tunisia is characterized by the presence of various types of oases. However, despite their diversity, the oases are often classified into only two categories according to their cultivation mode: traditional and modern. In light of concerns over the sustainability of oasis society, assessing the rationality of modern and traditional oases in the context of both natural and economic environments is necessary. This paper attempts this assessment, and employs a case study based on a survey of farmers in two oases, Mouthabra (a modern oasis) and Souk Bayez (a traditional oasis), in the spring of 2012. As an empirical analysis, this paper investigates the farm-level technical efficiency of date palm production by oasis farmers in southern Tunisia, estimating the Cobb- Douglas form of stochastic frontier production function. The results shed light on the distinction between traditional and modern oases. Traditional oases have higher productivity in date palm production than modern oases because of the farmers' efforts to maximize their possible outputs. Although traditional oases are facing water scarcity, there is considerable scope for increasing date production.

エジプトでは, 2011年の「1月25日革命」 (エジプト革命) 以来, 政局は混迷を深め, 逆転に次ぐ逆転, 逆説的展開が繰り返されている. その中で浮き上がってきたのは, 政治の正当性をめぐる街頭での抗議行動 (街頭政治) と選挙での投票行動 (選挙政治) との対立である. 本稿は, この対立に注目し, それぞれの政治行動の担い手を分析することによって, エジプト革命の行方に見通しをつけるために執筆された.<br>依拠するデータは, 2008年から12年までの革命前後において著者たちが独自に実施した4回の意識調査, とりわけ12年における第4回目の意識調査のデータである. このデータを使って, 街頭政治と選挙政治の担い手を分析した結果, 革命後の「民主化」過程で実施された一連の選挙の中で都市住民を中心に「新たな選挙参加者」が形成されたこと, そして, 彼らの投票行動における流動的な性格がイスラム政党の躍進と革命の変質をもたらしたことが明らかとなった.<br>また, この「新たな選挙参加者」の流動的な性格は, 一時的貧困を特徴とするエジプトにおける貧困の構造的な脆弱性に根差していた. つまり, エジプトでは慢性的な貧困層と一時的な貧困層が併存するが, 前者は農村部, とりわけ上エジプト地方に滞留し, 後者は都市部にみられる. そこから, 同じく経済のグローバル化に直面しながらも, 地方住民が投票行動においてブレなかったのに対して, 都市住民はその時々の情勢でブレやすい政治行動パターンを取ることになった.

This paper aims to evaluate the poverty situation in the unplanned areas in Cairo as a case study. The unplanned areas, which are considered low-income areas, make up the majority of Cairo, and they have attracted the interest of policymakers and researchers because of their huge size and the political upheavals that have occurred since the 1990s. However, there have been no studies on poverty in these areas owing to a lack of data. The originality of this paper lies in employing three concepts of poverty: consumption-based poverty, a multidimensional poverty index (MPI), and subjective poverty. By using these different concepts of poverty, this paper contributes to the understanding of the nature of poverty and the interrelationship between these three measures of poverty in Greater Cairo. The main finding is that the three types of poverty are different. Households can be poor according to the MPI measure or can consider themselves to be poor, even though they are not objectively poor on the consumption-based measure. This implies that policies aiming at improving living standards in these areas should address and design strategies according to the types of poverty that are prevalent. © 2013 African Development Bank.

Dakhla Oasis is located in the heart of the Western Desert of Egypt 190 km to the West of the Kharga Oasis where it contains highly fertile lands rich in water and it supports a higher population compared to the Kharga Oasis. The study area is mainly concentrated in the Rashda village where Well No. 3 Irrigation District is located to the northwest of the village. Satellite imageries of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) 1972 and 1984, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) 1988, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 2000 were used to determine the change in landuse and change in elevation with its relation to landuse. The automated unsupervised classification technique was applied to delineate the different landuse classes. Landsat-5/TM and Landsat-7/ETM + images in the period between 2001 and 2010 have been used to study crop rotation at the Rashda village to detect the amount of vegetation cover and its condition in the Well No.3 district. The land use change analysis showed that the extension of cultivated land was already completed by the 1980s in the North and South subdistricts, after which it spread toward the West. Because the altitude in the West subdistrict is lower than the wells, irrigation water could be distributed adequately if the condition of the irrigation channel was well maintained. The relationship between the irrigation level and plant production was not favorable in the West compared with other subdistricts. The cultivated area in the West district has been increasing since the 1970s. According to the crop rotation analysis, the different productivity of the subdistricts was caused by several factors, including the land altitude and the distance from the well, as well as other factors such as social relationships in the village. © 2012 National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences.

The "Jasmine Revolution" began in December 2010 in Tunisia and spread throughout the Arab countries, also provoking a series of popular demonstrations in Egypt. It is named the "Revolution of 25 January" after the first massive protest on that day and on 11 February, 2011, President Mubarak was obliged to step down. This nationwide political movement by the Egyptian people calling for democratization marked a new phase in Egyptian political history. The authors had the opportunity to conduct two opinion surveys in Egypt during the period 22 - 31 December, 2010 and 19 February - 5 March, 2011 immediately before and after the start of the "Revolution". These two surveys were conducted in the three governorates of Cairo, Port Said and Sohag. The sample sizes were 1,500 (600 in Cairo, 300 in Port Said and 600 in Sohag) of respondents aged 18 years and over in the survey before the "Revolution" and 900 (360 in Cairo, 180 in Port Said and 360 in Sohag) in the survey after the "Revolution". The three governorates were chosen for comparative purposes to determine differences in political opinion between urban and rural areas, and capital and provincial regions. The aim of this paper is to clarify the changes in Egyptian political opinion after the "Revolution", and the factors behind them using the four indicators of governorate, age, education and sex. In conclusion, this paper highlights the two opposing orientations beneath the political upsurge among the Egyptian people, namely, a trend calling for political participation on the one hand, and stability on the other. This triggers an ambiguous combination of the issue of education and regional political culture.

本稿は、エジプト国民の政治意識を定量的な分析により明らかにする。その際、焦点は政治態度とさまざまな社会経済的・文化的な要素との関係を検証することにおかれる。依拠するデータは、ニーズ対応型地域研究推進事業「アジアのなかの中東」(代表:加藤博)の一環として、「エジプト研究訓練センター」(所長:アブデルハミード・アブデラティーフ)により2008年に実施されたアンケート調査から得られた。この調査は、18歳以上のエジプト国民1000人を対象とした、全国規模のアンケート調査である。本調査の独自性の一つは、地域的な比較が可能になるように設計されたことである。ここでの「地域」とは、都市県(カイロ県、ポート・サイド県)、下エジプト(メヌフィーヤ県、カフル・シェイフ県)、上エジプト(ベニー・スエフ県、ソハーグ県)のことである。本稿では、この調査から得られたデータに依拠し、地域的な違いを重視して、エジプト国民の政治態度とその社会経済的背景要因との関係を明らかにすることを目的とした。地域的な違いを重視するのは、これまでのエジプト政治研究では、地域的偏差が考慮されてこなかったからである。しかし、本稿では、今日のエジプト政治状況と今後のエジプト社会の展望するにあたって、地域的偏差を重視する必要があると考え、上記の3つの地域における政治態度の比較分析を試みた。分析の結果は、次の四つである。第1に、多重対応分析の結果から、エジプト国民の政治態度が地域によって異なることが確認された。第2に、因子分析の結果から、社会開発が政治態度を左右する重要な要因であることが判明した。なかでも学歴が重要である。第3に、社会開発が重要であるとはいえ、その重要性の度合いならびに社会開発の中身は地域によって異なる。したがって、社会経済環境と政治態度の関係は単線的ではなく、地域によって異なるパターンをとる。第4に、三つの地域に共通する傾向として、社会開発が必ずしも積極的な政治態度を助長するわけではない。通説に反して、社会開発は政治参加の促進力とはなっていない。実際、最も高い生活水準を享受し、学歴の高い都市県の住民は、最も社会的不満をかかえ、政治参加が低い。

This paper aims to analyze the structure of household and family in rural Egypt, based on the three kinds of source materials, micro data at household level, geographic information and historical documents. These three kinds of data and information were collected in our surveys of 19 villages from 2003 to 2005.// In this paper, household is by definition a residential unit where individuals share consumption. It is called "usra" in Arabic. On the other hand, family is a social unit based on household. In Egypt, family is generally called "'āila" in Arabic.// We deal these two concepts of household and family, on the assumption that the basic unit of material life is household, and family is a unit in social life which goes beyond the material life. Since family is based on household, our study bases its analysis on household.// The paper consists of following six parts.// Introduction// 1. Data and methodology// 2. 19 villages in rural survey// 3. Demographic characteristics of household in 19 survey villages// 4. Household structure of 19 survey villages// 5. Family structure in 4survey villages// 6. Historical change of household structure: a case study// Concluding remarks// The findings in the paper are summarized as follows.// According to the nation-wide surveys, there are regional differences between Lower and Upper Egypt in regard to household size, age structure, fertility and consanguinity. The survey in 19 villages shows the same regional variation in regard to demographic features.// As for the scale and structure of household, they are same regardless of region. Most of the households in rural Egypt now are nuclear household. On the contrary, the scale and structure of family differ by region. We conclude this regional difference as a cultural phenomenon that goes along with an arrangement of ouseholds within the village economy.// In comparison of household structure in 1861 and 2005 in Rashda village, the scale and composition of household differ largely. However, the numbers of spouse, son and daughter are same in these two years. This means that the difference lies in number of brothers. We conclude this difference not as a change of the family system, but as an arrangement within the individuals surrounding the household.

Rural migration to Greater Cairo is a phenomenon that indicates the dynamics of rural-urban linkage. The paper aims, as part of a study on the urban-rural relationship in Egypt, to offer basic information on village associations in Cairo. A village association refers to an association organized by Cairo residents who originally come from the same village. The paper is composed of five chapters including the introduction in Chapter I. Chapter II explains the spatial differences in socioeconomic aspects in Greater Cairo by conducting a cluster analysis and displaying its results on a digital map. Chapter III presents the overall situation of village associations in Cairo by examining their location, memberships and activities, based primarily on the list of 576 village associations in Cairo governorate. Chapter IV is a case study of the association of a village named Abu Senita that uses the association's member list. Finally, Chapter V concludes with certain implications concerning the characteristics of the urban-rural relationship between villages and Greater Cairo deduced from our analysis will be deduced from the analysis of village associations. Our conclusions are as follows. Recently, some associations have become more active and are diversifying their activities, which play an important role for the migrants as a means of coping with the socioeconomic difficulties in daily life in Cairo. Village associations of migrants from Lower and Upper Egypt are the same in this regard. However, socioeconomic backgrounds appear to differ between migrant village associations from Lower and Upper Egypt. For Lower Egypt, the essential factors influencing the foundation of village associations appear to be their proximity to Greater Cairo, and the lack of job opportunities in the nonagricultural sector. Conversely, for Upper Egypt, while migration is essentially a socioeconomic phenomenon caused by low income and unemployment, the establishment of an association seems to be a rather matter of social network or culture, and an issue requiring further examination through a case study.

平成16～19年度科学研究費補助金基盤研究(A)