堀江 哲也

This study examines how the allocation of export expansion across sectors affects economy-wide outcomes in Bangladesh. Using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework, we combine linkage analysis with simulation to evaluate how sectoral export growth propagates through the production network. The results show that the impact of export diversification depends critically on sectoral allocation rather than export intensity alone. While aggregate differences between scenarios are modest, reallocating export growth toward sectors with stronger intersectoral linkages generates larger economy-wide gains in GDP and labor income. In particular, sectors with low initial export shares but high network connectivity—such as agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing; retail trade; other community, social and personal services; and inland transport—produce stronger multiplier effects than most export-intensive sectors. These findings highlight a key distinction between export intensity and network centrality, demonstrating that sectors with limited direct export participation can play a central role in transmitting economic gains. The results provide a network-based perspective on export diversification and offer policy-relevant insights for designing strategies that promote more inclusive and efficient economic growth.

ABSTRACT Agricultural methane emissions represent a significant contributor to global climate change, with irrigated rice cultivation being one of the primary sources. Despite the availability of effective mitigation technologies, their adoption often remains limited due to behavioural and institutional constraints. Water management practice that extends drainage periods during cultivation can curb methane emissions from irrigated rice at low cost, yet uptake among Japanese farmers remains modest. We surveyed 2219 rice producers in Shiga Prefecture using a labelled choice experiment that embedded two behavioural nudges (social norm and loss aversion) and one informational boost (knowledge enhancement), presented with or without a reminder. Farmers most favoured a 7‐day drainage extension. Social‐norm messages did not robustly shift adoption intentions, but loss‐aversion and knowledge enhancement paired with reminders increased the probability of choosing water management practice by 5–10 percentage points, particularly when financial incentives were modest. The added value of nudges and boosts faded once subsidies approached prevailing ceiling levels, suggesting diminishing marginal returns to stacking instruments. These findings suggest that timely, low‐cost behavioural interventions can effectively complement agri‐environmental payments in resource‐constrained settings, providing a scalable and context‐sensitive strategy to accelerate the adoption of climate‐smart rice practices.