岩﨑 えり奈

エジプトでは, 2011年の「1月25日革命」 (エジプト革命) 以来, 政局は混迷を深め, 逆転に次ぐ逆転, 逆説的展開が繰り返されている. その中で浮き上がってきたのは, 政治の正当性をめぐる街頭での抗議行動 (街頭政治) と選挙での投票行動 (選挙政治) との対立である. 本稿は, この対立に注目し, それぞれの政治行動の担い手を分析することによって, エジプト革命の行方に見通しをつけるために執筆された.<br>依拠するデータは, 2008年から12年までの革命前後において著者たちが独自に実施した4回の意識調査, とりわけ12年における第4回目の意識調査のデータである. このデータを使って, 街頭政治と選挙政治の担い手を分析した結果, 革命後の「民主化」過程で実施された一連の選挙の中で都市住民を中心に「新たな選挙参加者」が形成されたこと, そして, 彼らの投票行動における流動的な性格がイスラム政党の躍進と革命の変質をもたらしたことが明らかとなった.<br>また, この「新たな選挙参加者」の流動的な性格は, 一時的貧困を特徴とするエジプトにおける貧困の構造的な脆弱性に根差していた. つまり, エジプトでは慢性的な貧困層と一時的な貧困層が併存するが, 前者は農村部, とりわけ上エジプト地方に滞留し, 後者は都市部にみられる. そこから, 同じく経済のグローバル化に直面しながらも, 地方住民が投票行動においてブレなかったのに対して, 都市住民はその時々の情勢でブレやすい政治行動パターンを取ることになった.

The "Jasmine Revolution" began in December 2010 in Tunisia and spread throughout the Arab countries, also provoking a series of popular demonstrations in Egypt. It is named the "Revolution of 25 January" after the first massive protest on that day and on 11 February, 2011, President Mubarak was obliged to step down. This nationwide political movement by the Egyptian people calling for democratization marked a new phase in Egyptian political history. The authors had the opportunity to conduct two opinion surveys in Egypt during the period 22 - 31 December, 2010 and 19 February - 5 March, 2011 immediately before and after the start of the "Revolution". These two surveys were conducted in the three governorates of Cairo, Port Said and Sohag. The sample sizes were 1,500 (600 in Cairo, 300 in Port Said and 600 in Sohag) of respondents aged 18 years and over in the survey before the "Revolution" and 900 (360 in Cairo, 180 in Port Said and 360 in Sohag) in the survey after the "Revolution". The three governorates were chosen for comparative purposes to determine differences in political opinion between urban and rural areas, and capital and provincial regions. The aim of this paper is to clarify the changes in Egyptian political opinion after the "Revolution", and the factors behind them using the four indicators of governorate, age, education and sex. In conclusion, this paper highlights the two opposing orientations beneath the political upsurge among the Egyptian people, namely, a trend calling for political participation on the one hand, and stability on the other. This triggers an ambiguous combination of the issue of education and regional political culture.

本稿は、エジプト国民の政治意識を定量的な分析により明らかにする。その際、焦点は政治態度とさまざまな社会経済的・文化的な要素との関係を検証することにおかれる。依拠するデータは、ニーズ対応型地域研究推進事業「アジアのなかの中東」(代表:加藤博)の一環として、「エジプト研究訓練センター」(所長:アブデルハミード・アブデラティーフ)により2008年に実施されたアンケート調査から得られた。この調査は、18歳以上のエジプト国民1000人を対象とした、全国規模のアンケート調査である。本調査の独自性の一つは、地域的な比較が可能になるように設計されたことである。ここでの「地域」とは、都市県(カイロ県、ポート・サイド県)、下エジプト(メヌフィーヤ県、カフル・シェイフ県)、上エジプト(ベニー・スエフ県、ソハーグ県)のことである。本稿では、この調査から得られたデータに依拠し、地域的な違いを重視して、エジプト国民の政治態度とその社会経済的背景要因との関係を明らかにすることを目的とした。地域的な違いを重視するのは、これまでのエジプト政治研究では、地域的偏差が考慮されてこなかったからである。しかし、本稿では、今日のエジプト政治状況と今後のエジプト社会の展望するにあたって、地域的偏差を重視する必要があると考え、上記の3つの地域における政治態度の比較分析を試みた。分析の結果は、次の四つである。第1に、多重対応分析の結果から、エジプト国民の政治態度が地域によって異なることが確認された。第2に、因子分析の結果から、社会開発が政治態度を左右する重要な要因であることが判明した。なかでも学歴が重要である。第3に、社会開発が重要であるとはいえ、その重要性の度合いならびに社会開発の中身は地域によって異なる。したがって、社会経済環境と政治態度の関係は単線的ではなく、地域によって異なるパターンをとる。第4に、三つの地域に共通する傾向として、社会開発が必ずしも積極的な政治態度を助長するわけではない。通説に反して、社会開発は政治参加の促進力とはなっていない。実際、最も高い生活水準を享受し、学歴の高い都市県の住民は、最も社会的不満をかかえ、政治参加が低い。

This paper aims to analyze the structure of household and family in rural Egypt, based on the three kinds of source materials, micro data at household level, geographic information and historical documents. These three kinds of data and information were collected in our surveys of 19 villages from 2003 to 2005.// In this paper, household is by definition a residential unit where individuals share consumption. It is called "usra" in Arabic. On the other hand, family is a social unit based on household. In Egypt, family is generally called "'āila" in Arabic.// We deal these two concepts of household and family, on the assumption that the basic unit of material life is household, and family is a unit in social life which goes beyond the material life. Since family is based on household, our study bases its analysis on household.// The paper consists of following six parts.// Introduction// 1. Data and methodology// 2. 19 villages in rural survey// 3. Demographic characteristics of household in 19 survey villages// 4. Household structure of 19 survey villages// 5. Family structure in 4survey villages// 6. Historical change of household structure: a case study// Concluding remarks// The findings in the paper are summarized as follows.// According to the nation-wide surveys, there are regional differences between Lower and Upper Egypt in regard to household size, age structure, fertility and consanguinity. The survey in 19 villages shows the same regional variation in regard to demographic features.// As for the scale and structure of household, they are same regardless of region. Most of the households in rural Egypt now are nuclear household. On the contrary, the scale and structure of family differ by region. We conclude this regional difference as a cultural phenomenon that goes along with an arrangement of ouseholds within the village economy.// In comparison of household structure in 1861 and 2005 in Rashda village, the scale and composition of household differ largely. However, the numbers of spouse, son and daughter are same in these two years. This means that the difference lies in number of brothers. We conclude this difference not as a change of the family system, but as an arrangement within the individuals surrounding the household.

Rural migration to Greater Cairo is a phenomenon that indicates the dynamics of rural-urban linkage. The paper aims, as part of a study on the urban-rural relationship in Egypt, to offer basic information on village associations in Cairo. A village association refers to an association organized by Cairo residents who originally come from the same village. The paper is composed of five chapters including the introduction in Chapter I. Chapter II explains the spatial differences in socioeconomic aspects in Greater Cairo by conducting a cluster analysis and displaying its results on a digital map. Chapter III presents the overall situation of village associations in Cairo by examining their location, memberships and activities, based primarily on the list of 576 village associations in Cairo governorate. Chapter IV is a case study of the association of a village named Abu Senita that uses the association's member list. Finally, Chapter V concludes with certain implications concerning the characteristics of the urban-rural relationship between villages and Greater Cairo deduced from our analysis will be deduced from the analysis of village associations. Our conclusions are as follows. Recently, some associations have become more active and are diversifying their activities, which play an important role for the migrants as a means of coping with the socioeconomic difficulties in daily life in Cairo. Village associations of migrants from Lower and Upper Egypt are the same in this regard. However, socioeconomic backgrounds appear to differ between migrant village associations from Lower and Upper Egypt. For Lower Egypt, the essential factors influencing the foundation of village associations appear to be their proximity to Greater Cairo, and the lack of job opportunities in the nonagricultural sector. Conversely, for Upper Egypt, while migration is essentially a socioeconomic phenomenon caused by low income and unemployment, the establishment of an association seems to be a rather matter of social network or culture, and an issue requiring further examination through a case study.

平成16～19年度科学研究費補助金基盤研究(A)