MONFORT BRIEUC

Abenomics initially generated high expectations but it has more recently come to be seen as yet another failed economic experiment. In addition, discussion of Abenomics often verges on caricature. It is thus crucial to provide a critical and balanced evaluation. We argue that, over the past five years, the proactive policies pursued under Abenomics played a decisive role in reversing one cause of the Japanese slowdown - inconsistent economic policies - and that they are now yielding preliminary results. We are more critical with regard to long-term issues: as the case of trade policy shows, the problem is not so much a lack of structural reform as limits to its ability to increase Japan's growth potential.

This article examines changes in business-cycle synchronization in the G7 economies in the past thirty years. It specifically analyzes the impact of two synchronization transmission channels: trade and financial relations. Trade relations have gradually increased over the sample period, while financial integration has accelerated since the second half of the 1980s. Using a state-space model, we identify a common business cycle for GDP, exports, and stock-market indexes. We find that the links between economies measured by trade flows and stock-market indexes have indeed increased. By contrast, using GDP as the yardstick, we cannot conclude that the economies have become more synchronized in the recent period. This article examines changes in business-cycle synchronization in the G7 economies in the past thirty years. It specifically analyzes the impact of two synchronization transmission channels: trade and financial relations. Trade relations have gradually increased over the sample period, while financial integration has accelerated since the second half of the 1980s. Using a state-space model, we identify a common business cycle for GDP, exports, and stock-market indexes. We find that the links between economies measured by trade flows and stock-market indexes have indeed increased. By contrast, using GDP as the yardstick, we cannot conclude that the economies have become more synchronized in the recent period.