中川 善典

Policies for climate change adaptation differ from those for climate change mitigation, both of which share the common aim of maintaining a sustainable climate system that enables humankind to survive while enjoying wellbeing. Considering the variability in regional conditions, they must be diverse throughout the policymaking process, with the participation of multiple stakeholders, to place the livelihood of residents as the central issue. Simultaneously, these regional diversities must also be realized in a manner consistent with the global goal of climate change mitigation. To that end, comprehensive and transformative adaptation measures are essential, rather than responding to imminent issues on an ad-hoc basis. As the literature shows, a transdisciplinary approach involving researchers across different fields and multiple non-academic sectors can fill the gaps in transformative adaptation. Still, it has yet to be implemented because of the lack of experience of this issue. Here, we present key findings that affect the generation of synergies and tradeoffs among issues through our novel transdisciplinary approach in Kyoto, Japan, via a series of Future Design workshops in agriculture in collaboration with local farmers, regional policymakers, and researchers with diverse backgrounds. These results provide a direction for future research to secure a methodological foundation that will facilitate the sustainability of these efforts.

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Brain scientists have established that projecting future events can influence the functioning of human brains and possibly current decisions (Schultz et al., 1997; Gilbert and Wilson, 2007; Gerlach et al., 2014, Szpunara et al., 2014). We design and institute a deliberative experiment to test whether the acquisition and experience of intergenerational retrospective viewpoints as one way of projecting future events affect individual preferences for policies. To this end, we employ a case-method approach for forest management policies in Kochi prefecture, Japan, because these environmental issues extend over multiple generations. We prepare two treatments of non-retrospective and retrospective settings where subjects are asked to read through a case-method material on forest management and reveal preferences for policies at the individual and group levels through deliberative discussions. Subjects in the retrospective treatment experience a series of procedures to acquire intergenerational retrospective viewpoints, while those in the non-retrospective treatment do not. The results reveal that the acquisition and experience of intergenerational retrospective viewpoints affect individual preferences for forest policies in that the most favored policies chosen by subjects in the retrospective treatment differ from those in the non-retrospective treatment. Subjects in the retrospective treatment tend to choose the policies that fundamentally change the status quo, while those in the non-retrospective treatment show the opposite tendency. Overall, this result suggests that acquiring intergenerational retrospective viewpoints as part of projecting the future could possibly affect ways of thinking and preferences for possible betterment of the future.

In recent times, many studies have been conducted to understand those who migrate to rural areas. However, few have investigated the psychological and behavioral factors that affect people's decisions to migrate to rural areas. This study identifies the psychological and behavioral factors that have been suggested in the psychology literature and in rural studies as factors affecting people's decision to move to rural areas. The study is unique in that it categorizes the psychological states during the process of rural migration decision into three levels and identifies how psychological and behavioral factors affect people at each level. Researchers collected data from 906 respondents in Japan, including 128 people who had migrated to rural areas. The findings show that environmental and health concerns were significantly associated with initiating the procedure of the rural migration decision, while motives related to spiritual growth and employment were strongly connected with completing the procedure by actually migrating to rural areas. These findings contribute to a better understanding of a question that attracts a great deal of political attention in Japan: Why are rural areas gaining popularity especially after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011? This study represents the first time that the importance of psychological and behavioral traits, as measured by psychometrically sound scales, has been confirmed within a model explaining the decision to migrate to rural areas.

This phenomenological study aimed to explore the lived experiences of households after the installation of seismic hazard mitigation measures. Unlike studies aimed at identifying the causal mechanisms behind household behavior, the present study focused on the subjective meaning of these experiences. A total of 17 households that had adopted seismic retrofitting were interviewed; data from six of these households were purposefully selected and analyzed in detail using Giorgi's phenomenological psychological method. The data were reduced to a single structure according to which the installation of the seismic hazard mitigation measure was considered a dilemma related to perceptions of vulnerability versus the awkwardness of getting started, which developed into another irreconcilable dilemma related to feeling safer versus an awareness of absolute safety. In this process, a sense of life coherence was established, which enabled the participants to accept the irreconcilability. On the basis of these findings, this study proposes a new approach of promoting earthquake preparedness, in which the central point is practitioners assisting households to create their own coherent life stories to deal with these dilemmas. It sheds light on the importance of how practitioners listen to households, rather than of how practitioners inform households.

Critical thinking is a form of open-minded thinking that aims to gain insight into how to improve things. The focus is on criticism and applicability of the resultant knowledge. Despite the existence of theories linking the critical thinking disposition and hazard adjustment adoption, there have been no previous studies examining the association between this disposition and household earthquake preparedness. The present study intends to identify this association. Data were collected from 598 respondents through a questionnaire survey. Household earthquake preparedness was measured by the number of adjustments adopted in the household. In regression analysis, taking into account interactions between the considered variables, it was found that logical thinking awareness, a subconstruct of the critical thinking disposition, was a significant predictor of household preparedness. Furthermore, inquisitiveness, another subconstruct of critical thinking disposition, was found to moderate the association between risk perception and earthquake preparedness. This finding suggests that people who have the motivation to tackle challenging situations actually do so in the context of earthquake preparedness. The practical implications of the findings are also discussed.

高齢者による運転事故を予防するため，自動車運転免許の自主返納が推奨されている．免許返納によって高齢者は移動の不便を余儀なくされるが，その不便を引き受けて返納することが返納者にとってどのような意味を有するかを理解することは，返納者の支援策を検討する上での出発点である．本論文は，二名の免許返納者の人生史研究に基づき，返納者の人生史全体を参照しない限り返納者にとっての返納の意味が理解できないケースが存在することを例証した．さらに，これら二名にとっての返納の意味の共通部分を抽出することで【自分の信念を貫いて人生を完結するための決意表明】としての免許返納という概念が構築された．最後に，運転免許の返納を検討する高齢者の家族が，どのような姿勢で高齢者に接する必要があるか等の実践的含意について論じた．

本研究は、建設技能者はどのように技能を獲得・伝達してゆくのかに関する実態を理解するための第一歩として、これらのプロセスを理解するに資する概念の開発を目的とした。師匠・弟子の関係にある高知県内の二名一組の建設技能労働者から独立して人生史を収集し、修正版グラウンデッド・セオリー・アプローチで用いられている分析ワークシートの技法により概念を開発した。その結果、【会社に利益を残す仕事】【恐怖への耐性】【しわ寄せの受け手としての下請け】【下級建設会社の誇り】【非制度的昇給システム】【OJTなしの暗黙知伝授】【伝えたい思いと盗みたい思いとの合致】という７概念が生成された。また、これらを用いて二名の人生を描くことで、概念間の関係を例示した。技能獲得・継承ロセスに関する一般理論の構築は今後の課題だが、その理論はこれらの概念を用いて記述されることが期待できる。

In the last few decades, a number of researchers have attempted to identify the effects of paid care services on alleviating the sense of burden of family care-givers, especially care-givers to people with dementia. However, few researchers have considered the possibility that paid care services alleviate the sense of burden only among those care-givers who possess specific characteristics. Without considering this point, the impact of paid care services would be averaged over an entire sample, and one might overlook the effects on these specific care-givers. With this background, this study examines the relationship between family care-givers' sense of burden and the amount of paid care services in Japan and identifies groups of care-givers among whom these services are significantly associated with a lesser sense of burden. The sense of burden of 339 family care-givers to older care recipients with dementia was measured using a modified version of the Caregiver Burden Inventory. In order to examine their association with the amount of paid care services received, logistic regression analysis was individually applied to groups of care-givers who exhibit specific characteristics. The results suggested that paid care services alleviated two out of five components of burden, provided the groups to which the analyses are applied are appropriately defined. In particular, two subsets of the entire sample, comprising young care-givers aged.. or below, and including male care-givers, indicated that their overall sense of social and emotional burden were alleviated by the use of paid care services. The practical implications for policy makers are discussed.

Passenger presence in vehicles has both positive (i.e., crash-reducing) and negative (i.e., crash-inducing) effects on drivers. Although many earlier studies have empirically investigated conditions under which negative or positive effects predominate, few of them considered why passenger presence has these effects. The present paper aimed to contribute to the understanding of this question by identifying dimensions of psychological effects of passenger presence that can influence the likelihood that drivers are involved in crashes. A multidimensional scale was developed by means of factor analysis. Data were collected from drivers who drive regularly with their spouses as passengers. Five dimensions were identified: "pique," "flattery, vanity, and overdependence," "relief," "responsibility," and "annoyance." Each dimension's subscale was shown to have a sufficient level of internal consistency and significant associations with external criteria on marital relationships and personality characteristics. The findings could serve as an important scientific basis for consideration of how to maximize the positive effects or minimize the negative effects of passenger presence. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

It is essential to find measures to compensate for the decline in elderly drivers' driving ability in order to meet their mobility needs and ensure their safety when driving. Although it has been well documented that elderly drivers' risks of crash involvement are alleviated by the presence of passengers, few studies have investigated whether the protective effect of passengers is influenced by driver characteristics including the degree of cognitive impairment. This study aimed to identify subgroups of elderly drivers whose crash involvement risks are more effectively alleviated by passenger presence. After dividing elderly drivers into three levels of cognitive impairment, as measured by the Short-Memory Questionnaire, and two gender groups, the present study found that only male drivers in the middle cognitive level benefited from passenger presence. The effectiveness of passenger presence may be more successfully achieved by proper selection of the appropriate range of cognitive decline and gender.

This paper proposes a method of structuring public policy by incorporating reciprocal expectation analysis. The proposed method is characterized by three components: identification of the problem structure perceived by stakeholders using cognitive maps, policy structuring analysis with a value-driver matrix and a reciprocal expectation matrix, and feasibility analysis of agreements among the stakeholders. The three types of relationship among stakeholders are derived from the feasibility analysis, which are "Dosho-imu", "Isho-imu", and "Domu". Three tests of feasibility to reach the agreement are then proposed: "information-sharing test", "bargaining test", and "reframing test". A case study is presented, applying the method to strategic transportation planning in the Kanto region of Japan. Finally, the potential functions of the proposed method in practice are discussed. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the one hand, mobility of elderly people is critical for their quality of lives and welfare. On the other hand, older drivers have higher crash rates per vehicle-mile of travel. In order to achieve the two conflicting goals, driving safety and mobility of the elderly, the present paper aims to discuss the possibility that intelligent artifacts can play a role of reducing crash risk of elderly drivers. A research design for obtaining empirical evidence on the effectiveness of robot presence in vehicles is also discussed. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.

Background: There are no reported studies on the relationship between traffic crashes and brain tissue changes in healthy drivers. The relationship between traffic crashes and leukoaraiosis, a common magnetic resonance imaging finding, was investigated in this study. Methods: A total of 3,930 automobile drivers (2,037 men and 1,893 women age, 21-87 years) who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging as part of total health check-ups and answered a road traffic questionnaire were examined to determine whether asymptomatic leukoaraiosis was associated with various types of traffic crashes. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to elucidate the relationship between leukoaraiosis and various types of traffic crashes. Results: Subcortical leukoaraiosis was diagnosed in 28.52% of all subjects, whereas periventricular leukoaraiosis was diagnosed in 9.57% of all subjects. Adjusted odds ratios for involvement in all types of traffic crashes were not significant for subjects with periventricular leukoaraiosis however, they were significant for subjects with multiple and large multiple subcortical leukoaraiosis. Adjusted odds ratios for involvement in crashes at crossroads were 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-2.00) for subjects with single subcortical leukoaraiosis, 3.35 (95% CI, 2.36-4.77) for subjects with multiple subcortical leukoaraiosis, and 2.45 (95% CI, 2.36-4.98) for subjects with large multiple subcortical leukoaraiosis. Periventricular leukoaraiosis was not significantly associated with crossroad crashes. Involvement in crashes of any type, parking lot crashes, and rear-end collisions showed no significant association with either subcortical or periventricular leukoaraiosis. Conclusions: Multiple subcortical leukoaraiosis, but not periventricular leukoaraiosis, is significantly associated with traffic crashes, in particular, crossroad crashes. This association is independent of sex, age, and driving exposure. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence describing the relationship between brain tissue changes and traffic crashes. © 2013 Park et al.

When or whether elderly drivers stop driving is concerning not only to the drivers themselves but also to their family members. Therefore, it is important for family members to take the initiative if they wish to obtain information on the likelihood of the drivers' involvement in crashes. On the basis of the older drivers' Everyday Behavior Questionnaire (EBQ) developed in this paper, we attempt to predict drivers' involvement in crashes using the responses given by their family members. The results revealed that this 14-item questionnaire has a sufficient level of internal consistency as well as a significant correlation (r = 0.29) with the experience of involvement in crashes in the last three years (p &lt 0.01). Although the EBQ is a proxy-reported questionnaire and does not include items directly related to driving behaviors, the correlation between the EBQ and crash involvement is stronger than that of the self-reported Driver Behavior Questionnaire reported in deWinter and Dodou (2010), who conducted a meta-analysis and estimated the overall correlation among samples of earlier studies. In addition, logistic regression analysis showed that the EBQ score and the exposure to driving risks, measured by the frequency of driving, are significant predictors of involvement in crashes. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

本論文は，高知県を対象として，交通システム成立の経緯を整理するとともに，その経緯と社会経済的要因や政治的要因との関係を分析するものである．同県の広域交通ネットワークの発展経緯を，古代～中世，近世，明治～戦前，戦後の４つの時代区分にしたがって整理した．その結果，高知県は，険しい四国山地と海に囲まれた地域であったため，古代から現在に至るまで，海路による広域交通ネットワークに頼らざるを得なかったこと，県領域内の閉鎖的な交通政策が広域旅客交通の発展を妨げたこと，高知県の陸路ネットワークの整備は，主に政治的要因によって実施されてきたこと，高知県の海上交通ネットワークは，一貫して関西地方との経済的結びつきのもとに発達してきたこと，四国遍路が高知県内の技術に与えた影響が大きいことなどを明らかにした．

Objectives: The aim was to identify significant relationships between the 21 components of caregivers' sense of burden in the Zarit Burden Interview and specific paid care services provided in Japan's long-term care insurance system. Method: We defined a service utilization level (SUL) that represents the amount of care services that caregivers were consuming. We calculated the ratios of people, among those with the same SUL value, whose sense of burden was weaker than a specific level. Finally, we conducted regression analysis and checked how this ratio varied compared to the change in SUL values. Results: For 12 among 22 components, the use of paid care services in general were significantly and linearly related with a smaller number of people having the strongest sense of burden. Several pairs of burden components and care service types were identified indicating that the type of care services effectively alleviated that burden component. Conclusions: (1) Paid care services do relieve caregivers' sense of burden. (2) Measures to increase the ratio of people with the weakest sense of burden by encouraging the use of care services do not necessarily match those that decrease the ratio of people feeling the heaviest burden. (3) Policies that encourage caregivers to use more care services can be more effective if policy makers know which type of care service is related with a burden component.

This paper proposes an AHP based statistical method for the design of a comprehensive policy alternative, AHPo, for solving societal problems that require a multifaceted approach. In the proposed method, criteria relevant to the goal or focus are structured in the same way as in the conventional AHP. However, these two methods are quite different in regard to the method of quantification. The new method predicts or analyses the impact of the policy alternatives on the overall goal. In other words, it predicts or rationalizes the way people appreciate the situation in which an alternative is adopted and implemented. It will serve as a tool for supporting (especially political) decision making. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This paper aims at developing a problem structuring method based on interview surveys of key stakeholders and a well-known visualizing technique, called a "cognitive map." We found that this new method, based on an interactive process with key stakeholders, was able to draw broader and more detailed issues than was previously anticipated. We also found that the proposed method was useful for the analysis of the societal implications of emerging technologies, such as nanotechnologies, which are not easily defined. It is confirmed that the proposed method can clarify common and diversified issues based on the perception of key stakeholders and identify additional stakeholders to be interviewed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

本論文は、木造住宅の耐震化率向上に関する地方自治体の政策立案を支援するための手法を提案することを目的として、次の三点を実施した。第一に、家主が耐震補強工事を実施するか否かを判断する心理的要因を包括的に整理・構造化した。第二に、この構造を踏まえて、ある集団内における耐震補強意思の強さの分布が変化するメカニズムを説明できる枠組みを提案した。これにより、どのような方向性を持った政策を組み合わせることが政策目標に最も寄与するかを分析することが可能になった。第三に、それぞれの方向性をもった政策を、どのようなターゲット層を意識しながら具体化することが最も効率的であるかを示した。以上のプロセスを各自治体で行うことにより、その自治体に適した政策立案が可能になることが期待できる。

行政，特に地方自治体と言われる市町村には，住民の要求に対し効率・効果的にサービスを提供する必要性があるため，様々な政策，施策，そしてそれらを達成するための事務・事業が存在している．また，そうした一連の体系を可視化し，住民に説明責任として公表する責務を負っている．本論文は，行政における政策・施策を企画・立案し，設定された戦略目標を効率・効果的に達成するための方法論を示す．さらには，問題構造化，ロジックモデルといったツールを駆使することにより，行政経営システムを構築し，政策・行政方針の実施システムや政策・行政方針を実現するための計画において，パフォーマンスを計測しながら経営サイクルに従った見直し（システムメインテナンス）を行う方法論を述べるものである．

本研究は，公共政策におけるシナリオ分析に関して，関係主体間の相互関係を明示的に考慮する方法を提案し，それを東京圏の広域交通政策事例に適用した結果を示すものである．提案方法の特徴は，社会経済動向等に起因するマクロな不確実性に加えて，関係他主体の行動によるミクロな不確実性についても取り扱っている点と，ミクロな不確実性を考慮するために，既存の問題構造化分析によって得られた関係主体間の相互期待表を活用している点にある．ミクロ・マクロ両方の不確実性を考慮することによって，より現実的な分析と政策検討が行えるものとなっている．

本研究は，広域交通政策・計画の立案を事例として，関係する主体の問題認識の把握を通じて，問題全体を構造化し，政策立案のための課題を抽出するための手法を検討するものである．関東圏の交通政策を事例として選定し，関係主体に対するインタビューを通じて，各主体の認識を図示化し，その上でそれらを総合することによって，関東圏における交通問題の構造を分析する．次に，インタビュー結果から，問題の主要要素と今後重要になると考えられる環境条件を抽出し，それに基づき問題構造を分析した上で，今後検討すべきと考えられるイシューのリストアップを試みた．また，関係主体間の相互認識，利害関係の比較と主体間関係分析を行った．最後に，これらの分析結果を関係者によるワークショップの場にフィードバックし，課題抽出の契機の支援を試みた．