中澤秀雄, 成元哲, 樋口直人, 角一典, 水沢弘光
環境社会学研究, (4) 142-157, Sep, 1998 Peer-reviewed
Japan has witnessed a new cycle of social protests in the 1990s, which includes the rapidly diffusing local referendum movements, a boom in NGO/NPOs and a growth in environmental networks. Some scholars say that these social movements and networks have some continuities to the residents' movements in the 60-70s. So, the theme of increasing importance is to reconsider the dynamics and implications of 60-70s residents' movements. Using the method of event analysis, we investigate the following theoretical issues concerning the decisive factor that brought about protest waves of environmental movements in postwar Japan (1968-82). Japanese social movement studies have tended to argue that "structural strains" determined the rise and fall of the residents' movements. That is, they have been regarded as a reaction to rapid economic growth and urbanization since early 1960s. But this sort of explanation cannot explain the variety of local protest activities and the recently emerging protest wave. Thus we compare the validity of "the structural strains" and the "political opportunity structure" explanations of the dynamics of protest waves in Japan, using multiple regression analysis. Our findings fail to support structural strain theories, while the political opportunity structure showed a significant effect on protest events. Then, using multiple regression analysis again, we proceed to compare regional differences. We assumed that following three independent variables each reflect dimensions of the regional political opportunity structure: (a) increasing access, (b) influential allies and (c) unstable alignments. The results show that prefectures with unstable alignments, and prefectures ruled by conservative government are more likely to have protest events.