Xuepeng Qian

To identify the emission reduction potential and policy synergies of Tokyo’s road passenger and urban road freight transport under the “carbon neutrality target,” this paper constructs an assessment framework for megacities. First, based on macroeconomic socioeconomic variables (population, GDP, road length, and employment), regression equations are used to predict traffic turnover for different modes of transport from 2021 to 2050. Then, the prediction results are imported into the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model. By adjusting three policy levers—vehicle technology substitution (ZEV: EV/FCEV), energy intensity improvement, and upstream electricity and hydrogen supply decarbonization—a “single-factor vs. multi-factor (policy synergy)” scenario matrix is designed for comparison. The results show that the emission reduction potential of a single measure is limited; upstream decarbonization yields the greatest independent emission reduction effect, while the emission reduction effect of deploying zero-emission vehicles and improving energy efficiency alone is small. In the most ambitious composite scenario, emissions will decrease by approximately 83% by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario, with cumulative emissions decreasing by over 35%. Emissions from rail and taxis will approach zero, while buses and freight will remain the primary residual sources. This indicates that achieving net zero emissions in the transportation sector requires not only accelerated ZEV penetration but also the simultaneous decarbonization of electricity and hydrogen, as well as policy timing design oriented towards fleet replacement cycles. The integrated modeling and scenario analysis presented in this paper provide quantifiable evidence for the formulation of a medium- to long-term emissions reduction roadmap and the optimization of policy mix in Tokyo’s transportation sector.